Smok Wawelski

"Freedom is not simply about enjoying life in total autonomy, but rather about living by the measure of truth and goodness so that we ourselves can become true and good."
- Pope Benedict XVI, Aug. 21st 2005, Koln, Deutschland.





Index


Election Predictions:

Newfoundland & Labrador

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

New Brunswick

Quebec

Ontario

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Alberta

British Columbia

Territories


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Smok Wawelski's ruminations about politics, culture wars and the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Obama leading us to Global war?



Barack Hussein Obama has reneged on a US promise to provide Missile defense for Poland and the Czech Republic... Why? To appease the revanchiste Russian regime of Vladimir Putin. And to add insult to injury, he has done it on the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Invasion of Eastern Poland as per the secret protocols of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Treaty.

Though nominally the President, let's make no mistake about it, Dimitri Medvedev doesn't even take a trip to the loo without Putin first signing off on it, and for Obama to believe he can do business with these people is either a demonstration of an appalling ignorance of history, or a deliberate sellout of western security.

Poland has long been a staunch US ally. Now Poland has been betrayed. So what is Poland to do?

It is my view that as long as Obama is president, the United States is no longer to be trusted or counted on. Ask anyone in Honduras.So Poland, and other countries in Eastern central europe must take measures themselves to protect themselves against Russian aggression.

George W. Bush once stated that he " looked the man in the eye. I was able to get a sense of his soul" John McCain, however, got it right when he said " I looked into Putin' eyes and saw three letters: K-G-B".

Like Chamberlain, Barack Obama seems to believe that appeasing rogue governments is the pathway to peace. In 1936, Adolf Hitler first tested the resolve of western powers by marching a hanful of trrops into the Rhineland. he marched the same troops out and then back in again several times, and the west was sufficiently afraid of confrontation that they let him get away with it. Hitler tested them again over Austria, and then Czechoslovakia and was able to size them up as "liitle worms" as he put it. Had they marched into the Rhinelnad and called Hitler's bluff, the Nazi dictator would have , by his own admission, fallen from power. Instead, the result was a major war 3 years later that took tens of millions of lives and left Europe in ruins.

Now Obama is backing down on all the eastern European allies that George Bush stood up for and John McCain would have stood up for. And even more amazing is that he let his guard down just after the Russians agreed to ship weapons and tanks to the Chavez regime in Venezuela, and is cozying up to Iran.

I believe that Barack Hussein Obama is leading us to just such a war. Chavez is buying these Russian weapons, not to "defend" Venezuela, which has no enemies seriously contemplating, let alone capable of invading them, but rather, he will launch an invasion of Colombia, which as an emerging democracy, threastens to embolden the resistance within Venezuela. he may well ship some tanks to his ally Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, so that an invasion of Honduras will be possible.
Meanwhile, Russia is a clear and present danger. It is my contention that Putin wants to restore the Russian Empire, and realize the longtime Russian goal of getting a warm water southern port. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which saw many captive nations break away from Moscow's grip. It is enough that it was a humiliation to a once great power, but strategically , it was a disaster. With Ukraine declaring independence, Russia lost Odessa and Sebastopol, their ports on the Black Sea, which allowed them access to the Mediterreanean via the Dardanelles. They now lease the port from Ukraine, which limits them in terms of how it can be used. They also lost huge coal resources, and excellent farmland. Since the ascension of Putin, the Russians have tried to weaken Ukraine, and even brimg her back into the Russian sphere of influence. Note the interference in the last election, and sponsorship of a pro-Russian candidate, and an attempt to poision Viktor Yushchenko. I believe they will interfere in the next elections, and even more ruthlessly, since they have nothing to fear from "Hello Kitty" (as tammy Bruce calls him) in Washington.

He has been massing troops on the Georgian border fro some time now, and will no doubt find some reason to justify inishing off his grudge match aganst President Mikhail Saakashvili and democracy in that small country.

With Ukraine back under his belt, either as a component of the New Russia, or as a puppet state (like Lukashenko's Belarus) Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, The Baltic States and the Czech Republic will come under pressure.
Poland and the Eastern European nations need to take matters in their own hands. After the First World War, Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania had held talks about establishing a Confedracy such as had existed in times past, which had provided some measure of security, and could have provided a bulwark against both an aggressive germany and Russia. Past wrongs and festering animosities prevented it from happening. the result was Ukaine losing its independence an being absorbed by Russia two years later, whil Pland and lithaunia would only enjoy their independence for 20 years. Such a confedration if tried today could work, and keep Russia in check, But the Czech reoublic, Slovakia Estonia, Latvia and Hungary should also be included. Such an entity/alliance could provide for its own defense, and deter Russia.

Georgia, due to Geography, is in a much more difficult position. Logically they shoul ally themselves with Armenia and Turkey, but the Armenian/turkish animosities still run too deep for common sense to prevail, leaving Georgia out in the cold.
It is also possible that the Russian moves in the Caucasus may well be part of a plan for Russia to move into Iran eventually, should Israel take pre-emptive action against the regime in Teheran and heir nuclear project. Russia would then control even more immense oil resources, and have their long sought after southern port.

By his appeasement policies Obama has sent the wrong signals to the wrong people, which could well result in these rogue powers acting to advance some of their long term aims. If this argument needs any more re-inforcement, Obama has now agreed to hold direct talks with North Korea.... So there WAS a price paid to the pot bellied "Dear Leader" after all...

Will China, which sees Taiwan as a renegade province take it as a green light to finally regain face, and settle that old score?
Barack Obama has exposed the United States, the west, and the emerging free republics in Asia and latin America to danger on all sides, and if any of these scenaros do come to pass, we will find ourselves in the midst of a global war that cannot be won without nukes...and the problem is, the other sides have the bomb too...

The countries that truly love their freedom must stand firm, an take their defense into their own hands. It is time to stop relying on the USA.

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

What is Iggy's Game?



Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff has all but thrown down the gauntlet that could trigger Canada's 4th general election in 5 years.

What does he know that the rest of us don't? the answr to that question lies ahead, but first let's look at the whole picture.

By all indications, his rise to the leadership of the once-powerful Liberal party of Canada has been anything but spectacular. After losing to Stephane Dion in 2006, he took over as interim leader after Dion resigned last December and was officially confirmed in May.
Since then, while most politicians are out on the corn roast circuit, Michael Ignatieff has been virtually invisible.
His poll numbers have been anything but inspiring to his his troops. For most of the year his party has continued to trail the Tories, and his numbers have, in some polls rivalled the unprecedented lows that Dion managed to achieve.

This week, all economic indicators are pointing to evidence that Canada has weathered the worst of the recession, and is already on the road to recovery with growth forecast over the next two quarters, so how does Mr. Ignatieff expect to justify spending 300 Million dollars and sell the notion that the Conservatives have mismanaged things, and pose a clear and present danger if allowed to remain in power?

Perhaps it is because of the good economic news that Mr Ignatieff wants to strike now. It may well be that this could be the best time for him to make the case before things improve too tangibly to the average Canadian. Still the onus is going to be on him to justify the vote, and he and the opposition parties who would have to support him in a non-confidence motion may very well face the wrath of voters being called for the fourth time in five years, with the result being the first majority government elected since November 2000.

On the other hand, this could be a ruse on his part to distinguish the Liberals from the other opposition parties by painting them as being in collusion with the Tories, and by grandstanding, he may well be able to recover some anti-Tory Liberls who are parked with the NDP or Bloc, in order to position the grits to take back some seats from both parties in a subsequent vote.

Nevertheless,without Bloc and NDP support, Ignatieff cannot bring down the government, and if he overplays his hand, it could backfire in a big way. Esentially, Mr Ignatieff is gambling all or nothing. If he forces an election and loses without making some significant gains, he's done.

Now this brings us to the next question as to whether or why the Bloc and NDP would support Iggy at this time: With the Liberals poised to make many of their gains at BQ and NDP (see northern Ontario) expense, why would the NDP and Bloc risk losing seats? When one sees that Gilles Duceppe may want to retire soon, why would he he want to fight an election where he stands to lose 7-10 seats, instead of going out a winner?
And Jack Layton is sitting with 36 other New Democrats, why would he risk dropping to 15-20?

Even a best case scenario for the Liberals , if the current numbers hold, would still likely result in a Tory Minority government. The only other reason I can see why Ignatieff, Layton and Duceppe could pull the trigger would be that they are counting on a reduced Tory minority, would refuse to back Mr Harper, resulting in Governor Michaelle Jean having to turn to Ignatieff to ask him if he can form a government with the confidence of the house. Is it too much of a stretch to suggest that the "three amigos" might be ready to resurrect the coalition agreement they hatched last fall?

Given the current numbers, and the fact that they are not likely to move significantly, the best the opposition could hope for is an outcome such as this: CP: 130 Lib: 105 BQ 48 NDP 25, so it's not a stretch to ask whether a Liberal/NDP Coalition backed by the Bloc is really what Iggy has decided to settle for.
(Current predictions here!)

As long as the Bloc can maintain its strength in Quebec it will be difficult for anyone to win a majority, but voter anger toward the opposition might be such that some who might not normally vote Tory will do so, just to ensure a Tory majority, and an end to the endless cycle of minority governments and snap elections, for better or for worse.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Canadian Elections: The Road to a Majority Passes through Quebec.



In light of the possibility that Canadians will go to the polls this fall or next spring, it's not to early to start speculating on the possible outcomes of such a vote.

Click here to see early prognostications


One reason I would caution against an election being triggered at this time, is that judging by the lay of the land at this time, it would appear that we would end up with another minority government, and a Tory one at that.

Since 1993, the Bloc Quebecois has held over half of the seats in Quebec, making it difficult for any party to have a majority government. True, Jean Chretien racked up 3 consecutive majorities, but that was by virtue of a split vote on "the right", where the old PC Party refused to die, and the new Reform Party couldn'tget over the top east of Manitoba. This split resulted in the Liberals virtually sweeping Ontario. Then came 2003 and the merger of CA?Reform and the PCs, and suddenly without an Ontario sweep the Liberals could not win a majority, and in subsequent elections, neither could the Tories.

Thus for the cycle of minority government to be broken, it would require that one party or the other win 25-30 seats in Quebec with the Bloc falling below 25. As of now that does not appear to be in the cards. The Tories might have done it in October, but Gilles Duceppe was able to pounce on and spin a couple of Tory miscues into the kind of thing that took them from being poised to get over 25 seats, to barely hanging on to what they had.

That said, as things stand, there are approximately 25 ridings in Quebec that are a lock-down for the Bloc. Another 25 or so are in play to one degree or another, but most of which would probably swing to the Bloc under today's circumstances, so both the Libs and Tories must keep trying to find a way to break through in Quebec, and then make sure that they can fend off the skilled and experienced Duceppe who only has to contend in one province.

Another factor at this time is the decline of the NDP under Jack Layton. Layton overplayed his hand last December as he tried to cobble together a coalition with the Liberals, supported by the Bloc. Many people who parked their votes with the NDP because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Stephane Dion were horrified at the prospect of Jack Layton being anywhere near the pursestrings of the nation. At this point I expect them to lose up to half the seats they currently hold, the Liberals being the main beneficiaryin Ontario, while The Tories would be helped in BC.

Further complicating things, is the fact that neither Stephen Harper, nor Michael Ignatieff have succeeded in winning the hearts and minds of voters, which of course bodes well for the NDP and the Bloc.

Put simply, the numbers are simply not there for either the Liberals or the Conservatives to win a majority government, so all should just let their signs gather dust for awhile longer until things break one way or the other, and the break will have to take place in Quebec.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Honour Killings: We'd Better Understand



This girl is in hiding, terrified that she will be a victim of a so-called "Honour Killing". In this video she broke down saying that we don't undrstand. We had better understand that radical Islam does mandate (not permit, but REQUIRES) such extreme action for apostasy, and is often carried out for other things, such as adultery, or even minor matters which bring shame to the family.
Her parents want her returned to them, but she knows they will kill her if she is sent back. She also points out how widespread the practice really is. Here is a recent case that took place in Canada.
We need to wake up here in thewest. As more and more Muslims come to our countries, the demands grow for Sharia law to be permitted alongside our own law in matters pertaining to "internal Muslim affairs". Eventually it will be the law of the land, if concessiona are made. I would notbe surprised if many so-called honour Killings" are covered up by simply telling the authorities that "she has gone back to (insert Islamic country of your choice) to be married. We'll let Fathima Rifqa Bary tell her story and make her plea. The world needs to know, not only that "honour killings take place here, but be made aware of the many that take place every single day in Islamic countries, many of which go unreported, since in those countries where sharia is applied, women are considered second class persons , if that.



Thursday, September 04, 2008

The Palin Speech: Not a Good Day to be a Democrat





Here it is, the most powerful political speech in many years, preserved for posterity:BreakingSarah Wings Speech due to teleprompter malfunction!



I am not going to get into a deep analysis of this speech, but leave it for the viewer to decide.

What I will say is that this morning is not a good morning to be a Democrat.Sarah Palin is a breath of Fresh air, and left no doubt that she is, -to quote Theresa Heinz Kerry- "No shrinking violet". As I've said before, someone who can stand up to an entrenched old boys' network, and take it down, is the proverbial pit bull with lipstick.

Unlike Obama, her speech was full of substance as she made the case for her experience by talking about what being a gobernor and a Mayor actually entails, contrasting that with the ephereal job description of "community organizer" .

She hit on the energy issue, and wove in the "can do" attitude that made America great in the first place, and despite the best efforts of the left, remains the attitude of most Americans.

The ratings are not out yet, at the time I posted this, however it was expected to be one of the most watched speeches in history, possibly exceeding Barack Obama's Greek Tragedy Theatre speech last week. With that, it is probable that now that the American people have had a chance to hear her for themselves without the mediation of the hostile liberal media, any further attempts to smear her or her family will backfire against the Obama campaign.

As for her daughter Bristol, on whom so much attention was focussed this week, the kind of attentiuon no seventeen year old should face, she conducted herself with great dignity last night, and showed the same fortitude as her mother. Well done.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Is Sarah Palin Tough Enough? We Report, You Decide...



According to Rush Limbaugh, McCain campaign told Sarah Palin that they would be coming at her from all directions and said "are you ready for this?"

She replied..."Do you know the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull?
lipstick!"

This is what the Democrats are up against.

The witticism aside, the fact is that she went up against an old boys network within her own party in Alaska, and won, and if you don't think Old Boys clubs play rough, give it a try sometime.

The Democrats have another problem: Barack Obama must now "throw the Daily Kos under the bus".... The problem lies with the fact that the people represented by Daily Kos now run the Democratic Party. The Clinton era of moderate centrism died on Wednesday night. It was not all that long ago that, with the exception of Joe Biden, all the Democratic candidates went to the Daily Kos Convention to pay homage to Markos Moulitsos & co. No politician can ever again go anywhere near the Daily Kos.

The trouble is, like Jeremiah Wright, the association continues, and the Kos Kids will continue along their chosen path, and this will damage the Democrats, especially in what Many Dems comtemptuously dismiss as the Fly-over states, and in some Blue collar swing states where Obama had trouble against Hillary Clinton..

By all indications, so far, Governor Palin has stood tall, and will continue to do so. When one has deeply held core values, as opposed to values of convenience subject to the latest opinion polls, the inevitable storms can be weathered. If she's tough enough to take down the old boys of Alaska, she's tough enough for this, and more than tough enough to stare down Vladimir Putin.

Monday, September 01, 2008

Palin clears up Sleazy Internet Rumours from Daily Kos




Liberal bloggers over at Daily Kos, a scurrilous nasty, hyperpartisan extreme left website spent part of the day spreading the rumour that Sarah Palin's downs syndrome child trig was actually the child of her eldest daughter Bristol, 17, and that Gov Palin faked her pregnancy to cover up her daughter's. Later some more honest people at Kos debunked the story. Photographs showing Gov.Palin very pregnant were posted.
Big Blue Wave reported on this earlier.

For her part, to clear up any misconceptions, Gov. Palin today announced that Bristol is pregnant, and will be keeping the baby, and moreover will marry the father of thc child.
She went on to say in a statement that "Our beautiful daughter Bristol came to us with news that as parents we knew would make her grow up faster than we had ever planned. As Bristol faces the responsibilities of adulthood, she knows she has our unconditional love and support. Bristol and the young man she will marry are going to realize very quickly the difficulties of raising a child, which is why they will have the love and support of our entire family. We ask the media, respect our daughter and Levi's privacy as has always been the tradition of children of candidates,"

Bravo, Sarah... Another fine exmple of living out one's pro-life beliefs, by supporting her daughter through this time and beyond. As disappointed as I'd be ifone of my daughters came home pregnant, insofar as it would violate our beliefs concerning premarital sex, I would do the same.

Sen. McCain was aware of the situation before he asked Gov. Palin to join the ticket, and was fine with it.

I echo the Palins' request that the media keep her children out of it.

Palin and Obama: a side by side comparison




Gerard Baker of the Times of London (who brought us that delightful piece of satire He Ventured Forth To Bring Light To The World" back in early August See the video below with Baker narrating!) has just hit another one out of the park with an excellent compare and contrast piece on the two.



It should be remembered, also that Sarah Palin is running for Vice President, not President, and will be working with someone who knows the Washington ropes, and shares her cntempt for pork and corruption.

Election Predictions

Today's Line

Canada USA


For riding by riding predictions, please click on the name of the province.

Updated August 29th 2009.

Province
Others
TCTC
Totals
Newfoundland & Labrador
0
5
0
1
0
1
7
Nova Scotia
3
5
0
1
0
2
11
Prince Edward Island
0
3
0
0
0
1
4
New Brunswick
7
2
0
1
0
0
10
Quebec
9
20
25
0
1
20
75
Ontario
43
31
0
6
0
26
106
Manitoba
9
1
0
3
0
1
14
Saskatchewan
12
1
0
0
0
1
14
Alberta
28
27
0
0
0
1
28
British Columbia
21
2
0
2
0
11
36
Territories
1
0
0
0
0
2
3
Total
131
70
25
14
66
1
308
  1. Newfoundland & Labrador
  2. Nova Scotia

  3. PEI

  4. New Brunswick

  5. Quebec

  6. Ontario

  7. Manitoba

  8. Saskatchewan
  9. Alberta
  10. British Columbia
  11. Territories

Newfoundland & Labrador

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Avalon
?
Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls Windsor
?
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
?
Labrador
?
Random-Burin-St. George's
?
St John's East
?
St John's South-Mount Pearl
?
?

Nova Scotia

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Cape Breton-Canso
?
Central Nova
?
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Independent
?
?
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
?
Halifax
?
?
Halifax West
?
Kings-Hants
?
Sackville-Eastern Shore
?
South Shore-St. Margaret's
?
Sydney-Victoria
?
West Nova
Weak
?

Prince Edward Island

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Cardigan
?
Charlottetown
?
Egmont
?
?
Malpeque
?

New Brunswick

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Acadie-Bathhurst
?
Beausejour
?
Fredericton
?
Fundy Royal
?
Madawaska-Restigouche
?
Miramichi
Weak
?
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
?
New Brunswick Southwest
?
St. John
?
Tobique-Mactaquac
?

Quebec

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou
?
?
Abitibi--Témiscamingue
Ahuntsic
Alfred-Pellan
?
Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel
Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Bécancour
Beauce
Beauharnois--Salaberry
Barely
Beauport--Limoilou
Berthier--Maskinongé
Bourassa
Brome--Missisquoi
Brossard--La Prairie
Chambly--Borduas
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles
Châteauguay--Saint-Constant
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord
?
Compton--Stanstead
?
Drummond
?
Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine
?
Gatineau
?
Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia
Hochelaga
Honoré-Mercier
Hull--Aylmer
Jeanne-Le Ber
Joliette
Jonquière--Alma
La Pointe-de-I'Île
Lac-Saint-Louis
LaSalle--Émard
Laurentides--Labelle
Laurier--Sainte-Marie
Laval
?
Laval--Les Îles

Lévis--Bellechasse

Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher
Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Louis--Hébert
?
Louis-Saint-Laurent
Manicouagan
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Mégantic--L'Érable
Montcalm
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
Vacant
?
Montmorency--Charlevoix--Haute-Côte-Nord
Mount Royal
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine
Outremont
Papineau
Pierrefonds--Dollard
Pontiac
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier
Independent
Independent
Québec
Repentigny
Richmond--Arthabaska
?
Rimouski--Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
?
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
Rivière-du-Nord
Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean
?
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot
?
Saint-Jean
?
Saint-Lambert
?
Saint-Laurent--Cartierville
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel
Saint-Maurice--Champlain
?
Shefford
?
Sherbrooke
Terrebonne--Blainville
Trois--Rivières
?
Vaudreuil-Soulanges
Verchères--Les Patriotes
Westmount--Ville-Marie

Ontario

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
?
?
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
?
Ajax-Pickering
?
?
Barrie
?
Beaches-East York
?
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
?
Brampton West
?
?
Brampton-Springdale
?
?
Brant
?
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
?
Burlington
?
Cambridge
?
Carleton-Missippi Mills
?
Chatham-Kent-Essex
?
Davenport
?
Don Valley East
?
Don Valley West
?
?
Dufferin-Caledon
?
Durham
?
Etobicoke Centre
?
Etobicoke North
?
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
?
Eglinton-Lawrence
?
Elgin-Middlesex-London
?
Essex
?
Glengarry Prescott-Russell
?
Guelph
?
Haldimand-Norfolk
?
Haliburton-Kawartha lakes-Brock
?
Halton
?
Hamilton Centre
?
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
?
?
Hamilton Mountain
?
?
Huron-Bruce
?
Kenora
?
?
Kingston and the Islands
?
?
Kitchener Centre
?
?
Kitchener-Conestoga
?
Kitchener-Waterloo
?
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
?
Lanark-Frontenac-lennox & Addington
?
Leeds-Grenville
?
London North Centre
?
London West
?
?
London Fanshawe
?
?
Markham-Unionville
?
Mississauga East Cooksville
?
Mississauga South
?
?
Mississauga-Brampton South
?
Mississauga-Erindale
?
Mississauga-Streetsville South
?
?
Nepean-Carleton
?
Newmarket-Aurora
?
?
Niagara Falls
?
Niagara West Glanbrook
?
Nickel Belt
?
?
Nippissing-Temiskaming
?
Northumberland-Quinte West
?
Oak Ridges-Markham
?
?
Oakville
?
?
Ottawa Centre
?
Ottawa South
?
Ottawa-West Nepean
?
Ottawa-Orleans
?
?
Ottawa-Vanier
?
Oshawa
?
Oxford
?
Parkdale-High Park
?
Parry Sound-Muskoka
?
Pickering-Scarborough-East
?
Peterborough
?
Perth-Wellington
?
Prince Edward-hastings
?
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
?
Richmond Hill
?
St. Catharines
?
St Paul's
?
Sault Ste. Marie
?
?
Sarnia-Lambton
?
Scarborough Centre
?
Scarborough Southwest
?
Sacrborough-Agincourt
?
Scarborough-Guildwood
?
Scarborough-Rouge River
?
Simcoe North
?
Simcoe-Grey
?
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
?
Sudbury
?
?
Thornhill
?
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
?
?
Thunder Bay-Superior North
?
?
Timmins-James Bay
?
Toronto Centre
?
Toronto-Danforth
?
Trinity-Spadina
?
?
Vaughan
?
Welland
?
?
Wellington-Halton Hills
?
Willowdale
?
Whitby-Oshawa
?
Windsor-tecumseh
?
Windsor West
?
York Centre
?
York-Simcoe
?
York South-Weston
?
York West
?

Manitoba

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Brandon Souris
?
Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
?
Churchill
?
?
Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
?
Elmwood-Transcona
?
Kildonan-St. Paul
?
Portage -Lisgar
?
Provencher
?
Saint Boniface
?
Selkirk-Interlake
?
Winnipeg Centre
?
Winnipeg North
?
Winnpeg South
?
Winnipeg South Centre
?

Saskatchewan

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Battlefords-Lloydminster
?
Blackstrap
?
Cypress Hills-Grasslands
?
Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River
?
Palliser
?
Prince Albert
?
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
?
Regina Qu'Appelle
?
Saskatoon-Humboldt
?
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
?
?
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
?
Souris-Moose Mountain
?
Wascana
?
Yorkton-Melville
?

Alberta

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Calgary Centre
?
Calgary Centre North
?
Calgary East
?
Calgary Northeast
?
Calgary Southeast
?
Calgary Southwest
?
Calgary West
?
Calgary-Nose Hil
?
Crowfoot
?
Edmonton Centre
?
Edmonton East
?
Edmonton-Leduc
?
Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
?
Edmonton-Sherwood Park
?
Edmonton-Spruce Grove
?
Edomonton-St Albert
?
Edmonton-Strathcona
?
?
Fort McMurray-Athabasca
?
Lethbridge
?
MacLeod
?
Medicine Hat
?
Peace River
?
Red Deer
?
Vegreville-Wainwright
?
Westlock-St. Paul
?
Wetaskiwin
?
Wild Rose
?
Yellowhead
?

British Columbia

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Abbotsford
?
Burnaby-Douglas
?
?
Burnaby-New Westminster
?
?
British Columbia Southern Interior
?
Too Close to Call
?
Cariboo-Prince George
?
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
?
Delta-Richmond East
?
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
?
?
Fleetwood-Port Kells
?
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
?
Kelowna-Lake Country
?
Kootenay-Columbia
?
Langley
?
Nanaimo-Alberni
?
Nanaimo-Cowichan
?
?
Newton-North Delta
?
?
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Vacant
?
?
North Vancouver
img src="http://www3.sympatico.ca/nealford/cp.gif">
?
Okanagan-Coquihalla
?
Okanagan-Shushwap
?
Pitt Meadows-Maple Leaf-Mission
?
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
?
Prince George-Peace River
?
Richmond
?
Saanich-Gulf Islands
?
Skeena-Bulkley Valley
?
?
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
?
Surrey North
?
Vancouver Centre
?
Vancouver East
?
Vancouver Island North
?
?
Vancouver Kingsway
?
?
Vancouver Quadra
?
Vancouver South
?
?
Victoria
?
West Vancouver Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
?

Territories

Electoral District
Incumbent
Prediction
Result
Nunavut
?
Western Arctic
?
?
Yukon
?
?

US Presidential & Senate

State
2004 result
2008 Prediction
Senate
Result
Alabama (9)
Strong
Safe
?
Alaska(3)
Strong
Moderate
?
Arkansas(6)
Strong
Strong
?
Arizona (10)
Safe
No Race
?
California (55)
Strong
No Race
?
Colorado (9)
Too Close to Call
Weak
?
Connecticut (7)
Weak
No Race
?
Delaware (3)
Safe
Strong
?
DC (3)
Strong
No Senator
?
Florida (27)
Weak
No Race
?
Georgia (15)
Moderate
Moderate
?
Hawaii (4)
Safe
No Race
?
Idaho (4)
Safe
Safe
?
Illinois (21)
Safe
Safe
?
Indiana (11)
Safe
No Race
?
Iowa (7)
Too Close to Call
Safe
?
Kansas (6)
Safe
Safe
?
Kentucky (8)
Strong
Strong
?
Louisiana (9)
Strong
Weak
?
Maine (4)
Moderate
Strong
?
Maryland (10)
Moderate
No Race
?
Massachusetts (12)
Safe
Safe
?
Michigan (17)
Too Close to Call
Safe
?
Minnesota (10)
Too Close to Call
Weak
?
Mississippi (6)
Strong
SafeModerate
?
Missouri (11)
Barely
No Race
?
Montana (3)
Weak
Safe
?
Nebraska (5)
Safe
Strong
?
New Hampshire (4)
Too Close to Call
Moderate
?
New Jersey (15)
Moderate
Moderate
?
New Mexico (5)
Too Close to Call
Strong
?
New York (31)
Weak
No Race
?
Nevada (5)
Weak
No Race
?
North Carolina (15)
Weak
Moderate
?
North Dakota (3)
Weak
No Race
?
Ohio (20)
Weak
No Race">
?
Oklahoma (7)
Safe
Safe
?
Oregon (7)
Too Close to Call
Strong
?
Pennsylvania (21)
Too Close to Call
No Race
?
Rhode Island (4)
strong
Safe
?
South Carolina (8)
Safe
Safe
?
South Dakota (3)
Moderate
Safe
?
Tennessee (11)
Safe
Safe
?
Texas (34)
Safe
Safe
?
Utah (5)
Safe
No Race
?
Vermont (3)
Safe
No Race
?
Virginia (13)
Too Close to Call
Strong
?
Washington (11)
Strong
No Race
?
West Virginia (5)
Moderate
Safe
?
Wisconsin (10) (4)
Too Close to Call
No Race
?
Wyoming (3)
Strong
SafeSafe
?